EIR Says Qatari LNG Outage Will Shift Gas Market to Deficit

In a statement sent to Rigzone recently, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) outlined that the Qatari LNG outage will shift the global gas market into a structural deficit.

The statement, which highlighted the release of a new global gas report from EIR that examined the long-term implications of the outage, said EIR’s forecast indicates the global LNG market will move into a supply deficit of approximately eight billion cubic feet per day in 2026. The statement pointed out that EIR’s prior expectation was for “near-market balance”.

EIR warned in its statement that shortages will persist “through the end of the decade as Qatari capacity recovery and expansion projects are delayed”. According to the statement, a key takeaway of the report was that roughly two billion cubic feet per day of Qatari LNG export capacity is expected to remain offline until closer to 2030 “because of lasting facility damage”.

The statement noted that the removal of low cost Qatari LNG from global markets creates sustained competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes while reinforcing the strategic advantage of Pacific facing LNG export projects in Canada and Mexico. EIR highlighted in its statement that its report concludes that Asian markets with significant coal switching flexibility are better positioned to absorb supply disruptions than markets lacking fuel switching alternatives.

“The outage materially alters the global LNG balance by removing a significant source of low cost supply during a period when export capacity elsewhere is already largely utilized,” Josephine Mills, a senior analyst at EIR and author of the report, said in the statement.

“The resulting competition for marginal LNG cargoes is expected to keep global natural gas prices elevated while increasing the strategic value of supply diversification and Pacific facing export infrastructure,” Mills added.

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone on March 23, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said Qatar’s LNG sector had suffered “severe disruption” following missile strikes on Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 18.

“We have made a preliminary revision to Qatar’s LNG export outlook for 2026, with net exports now expected to fall from 104 billion cubic meters in 2025 to 83 billion cubic meters in 2026 (versus 101 billion cubic meters previously forecast), representing a 20.2 percent decline,” the BMI analysts said in the report.

“We do not expect natural gas production to decline by the same rate as LNG exports (with output expected to fall 6.7 percent), given that upstream gas facilities have not been damaged at the time of writing, pipeline exports continue to flow, and upstream production is still necessary to meet domestic power demand,” they added.

“In addition, Qatar’s North Field Expansions, which include upstream developments to provide feedgas, will help balance out declines in upstream output,” they continued.

Rigzone has contacted Qatar’s International Media Office (IMO) for comment on EIR’s statement and the BMI report. At the time of writing, the IMO has not responded to Rigzone.

In a statement posted on its website on March 20, QatarEnergy said it expects damage to its Ras Laffan Industrial City caused by missile strikes to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair.

The company - which highlighted in the statement that the strikes occurred on March 18 and March 19 - outlined that the damage will impact supply to markets in Europe and Asia.

The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing trains - Trains 4 and 6 - totaling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production, according to the statement, which pointed out that this represents approximately 17 percent of Qatar’s exports.

A statement posted on QatarEnergy’s website on March 18 confirmed that Ras Laffan Industrial City had been the subject of missile attacks. In a follow up statement posted on its site on March 19, QatarEnergy confirmed that, in the early hours of March 19, “several” of the company’s LNG facilities “were the subject of missile attacks, causing sizeable fires and extensive further damage”.  

QatarEnergy said in a statement posted on its site on March 2 that, due to military attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in the State of Qatar, the company had ceased production of LNG and associated products. In a statement posted on its site on March 3, QatarEnergy said it was stopping the production of some downstream products in the State of Qatar, “including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum and other products”.

In another statement posted on its website on March 4, QatarEnergy noted that, further to its announcement to stop production of LNG and associated products, the company had “declared Force Majeure to its affected buyers”.

QatarEnergy describes itself on its website as the “steward… of Qatar’s natural resources and the world’s largest provider of LNG”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com