EIA Ups WTI Price Forecast by $20 in Wake of Iran Conflict

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on March 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) boosted its 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average spot price forecast by $20 per barrel.

According to this STEO, the EIA now expects the WTI spot price to average $73.61 per barrel this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in February, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $53.42 per barrel.

The EIA’s latest STEO forecasts that the WTI spot price will come in at $60.81 per barrel in 2027. That marks an $11 jump from the 2027 average WTI spot price forecast in the EIA’s February STEO, which stood at $49.34 per barrel.

Both STEOs showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.40 per barrel in 2025.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the WTI spot price will come in at $72.60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $84.56 per barrel in the second quarter, $71.45 per barrel in the third quarter, $66.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $62.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $61.66 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $59.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.

In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $58.62 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $53.65 per barrel in the second quarter, $51.69 per barrel in the third quarter, $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $49.66 per barrel in the second quarter, $49.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.

The EIA highlighted the “onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28” in its latest STEO.

“As of March 9, when we finalized our forecast, physical damage to oil infrastructure was limited, but the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to most shipping traffic,” the EIA noted in its STEO.

“High uncertainty about the conflict’s effect on oil supplies has added a large risk premium to oil prices as market participants assess actual disruptions to oil flows and weigh the potential for those disruptions to persist,” it added.

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group late Thursday, BMI analysts projected that the front month WTI Crude price will average $67.5 per barrel in 2026 and $68 per barrel in 2027.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group earlier this year, which was dated January 29, projected that the front month WTI Crude price would average $64 per barrel this year and $68 per barrel next year.

In a report sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Standard Chartered projected that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.50 per barrel in 2026 and $63.50 per barrel in 2027.

A quarterly breakdown included in that report projected that the commodity will average $68.00 per barrel in the first quarter, $62.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $64.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $66.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $63.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027.

In a report sent to Rigzone earlier this year, dated February 3, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price would average $59.90 per barrel in 2026 and $63.50 per barrel in 2027.

A Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone last Monday highlighted that the price of Brent crude oil had “surged dramatically amid the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict”, adding that WTI had “followed suit, trading in the $108 - $115 area”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com