EIA Raises USA Fuel Price Projections for 2026, 2027

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its 2026 and 2027 price projections for both gasoline and diesel.

The EIA’s April STEO, which was released on April 7, saw the U.S. regular gasoline retail price averaging $3.70 per gallon this year and $3.46 per gallon next year. This STEO projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel price would come in at $4.80 per gallon in 2026 and $4.11 per gallon in 2027.

In its previous STEO, which was released in March, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would average $3.34 per gallon this year and $3.18 per gallon next year. That STEO saw the U.S. on-highway diesel price averaging $4.12 per gallon in 2026 and $3.78 per gallon in 2027.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will come in at $4.16 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.91 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.55 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.43 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.63 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.54 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.23 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2027.

The STEO forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will average $5.61 per gallon in the second quarter, $5.00 per gallon in the third quarter, $4.59 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $4.32 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $4.09 per gallon in the second quarter, $4.05 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.99 per gallon in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s April STEO showed that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price and the U.S. on-highway diesel price averaged $3.10 per gallon and $3.66 per gallon, respectively, in 2025.

“Higher crude oil prices are leading to higher prices at the pump for gasoline and diesel,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“We forecast [the] U.S. average retail gasoline price will increase to nearly $4.30 per gallon in April and the U.S. average retail diesel price will increase to more than $5.80 per gallon,” it added.

“Crude oil prices typically constitute around half the total retail price of gasoline and slightly less for diesel. Other factors include refinery margins (found by subtracting crude oil cost from refined product price), retail and distribution margins (subtracting wholesale gasoline costs from pump prices), and taxes,” it continued.

The EIA noted in its April STEO that most of the increase in retail gasoline prices will be driven by the increased crude oil price and typical seasonal patterns.

“We forecast U.S. gasoline inventories to be average or above average throughout the forecast period, which contributes to less pressure on refiner and retail margins for gasoline than for diesel,” it said.

For diesel, the EIA stated in its latest STEO that higher refining margins also contribute to the higher retail prices in the forecast period.

“Although we forecast diesel refining margins to decrease after a few months, the margins remain well above 2025 levels due to continued global supply tightness for diesel fuel,” the EIA noted.

“We forecast distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States to remain below the five-year (2021–2025) average in our forecast period,” it added.

The forecast for the EIA’s latest STEO was completed before the announcement of what Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, described as a “two-week Strait of Hormuz ceasefire”. Aslam highlighted, in a statement sent to Rigzone on April 8, that WTI and Brent were down 13-15 percent intraday “as … [the] ceasefire triggers a rapid unwind of geopolitical risk premium following the $110+ spike”.

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, as of April 17, in the U.S., the average regular gasoline price is $4.076 per gallon and the average diesel price is $5.593 per gallon.

Yesterday’s gasoline price average was $4.093 per gallon, the week ago average was $4.153 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.790 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.167 per gallon, the site showed.

Yesterday’s diesel price average was $5.614 per gallon, the week ago average was $5.683 per gallon, the month ago average was $5.044 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.582 per gallon, the site highlighted.

The highest recorded average price of regular gasoline was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, and the highest recorded price of diesel was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the AAA site outlined.

In a blog posted on its website on Monday, GasBuddy noted that the average price of gasoline in the U.S. was “virtually unchanged over last week” and stood at $4.07 per gallon, according to its data.

“The national average is up 39.1 cents from a month ago and is 93.4 cents per gallon higher than a year ago,” GasBuddy said in the blog.

“The national average price of diesel rose 4.1 cents in the last week and stands at $5.617 per gallon,” it added.

In Monday’s blog, GasBuddy said the most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists was $3.99 per gallon, “unchanged from a week ago”, followed by $3.89, $3.79, $3.69, and $4.19. The median U.S. gas price was $3.89 per gallon, “unchanged from last week and about 18 cents lower than the national average”, GasBuddy outlined in the blog.

The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, also “unchanged from last week”, followed by $4.89, $4.79, $4.69, and $4.59, GasBuddy noted in the blog, adding that the median U.S. diesel price was $5.49 per gallon, “up seven cents from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com