EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts Again

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has again raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecasts for both 2021 and 2022.

As its April short term energy outlook (STEO) shows, the organization now sees Brent spot prices averaging $62.28 per barrel this year and $60.49 per barrel in 2022. WTI spot prices are now expected to average $58.89 per barrel in 2021 and $56.74 per barrel in 2022. The EIA’s March STEO saw Brent spot prices averaging $60.67 per barrel in 2021 and $58.51 per barrel next year. WTI spot prices were expected to average $57.24 per barrel in 2021 and $54.75 per barrel in 2022, back in March.

In February, the EIA projected that Brent spot prices would average $53.20 per barrel in 2021 and $55.19 per barrel in 2022. WTI spot prices were expected to average $50.21 per barrel this year and $51.56 per barrel next year, in February. Back in January, the EIA saw Brent spot prices averaging $52.70 per barrel in 2021 and $53.44 per barrel in 2022. WTI spot prices were expected to average $49.70 per barrel in 2021 and $49.81 per barrel in 2022, in January.

In its April STEO, the EIA forecasted that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million barrels per day for all of 2021, which it highlighted was up by 5.5 million barrels per day from 2020. The EIA now expects global oil inventories to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2021 and said forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. The organization warned, however, that this depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors.

The EIA noted that its April STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to Covid-19 continue to evolve.

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