EIA Cuts Gasoline and Diesel Price Forecasts

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that it had cut its U.S. retail gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2023 and 2024.

The EIA now expects the retail price for regular gasoline to come in at $3.33 per gallon this year and $3.09 per gallon next year, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was published on April 11, the EIA saw the retail price for regular gasoline averaging $3.42 per gallon in 2023 and $3.18 per gallon in 2024.

As for the on-highway diesel fuel price, the EIA expects this commodity to average $3.90 per gallon this year and $3.62 per gallon in 2024, the May STEO showed. In its April STEO, the EIA saw the U.S. on-highway diesel price averaging $4.11 per gallon in 2023 and $3.87 per gallon in 2024. 

The latest EIA STEO highlighted that the 2022 retail gasoline and diesel price averaged $3.97 per gallon and $5.02 per gallon, respectively.

“Because we reduced our crude oil price forecast in the May STEO, we now forecast gasoline prices in the summer driving months (April through September) to be slightly lower than previously expected across all regions of the United States,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.

“Overall, we expect retail gasoline prices to remain below summer 2022 prices, which reflects both lower crude oil prices this summer and lower refining margins for gasoline,” the EIA added.

Dropping Prices

The EIA’s latest gasoline and diesel fuel update, which was released on May 8, showed that U.S. regular gasoline prices and on highway diesel fuel prices have been dropping recently.

According to the update, gasoline fell from $3.656 per gallon on April 24 to $3.600 per gallon on May 1 and $3.533 per gallon on May 8. The update showed that the diesel price had dropped from $4.077 per gallon on April 24 to $4.018 per gallon on May 1 and $3.922 per gallon on May 8.

As of May 8, the highest regular gasoline price was seen in California, at $4.638 per gallon, and the lowest was seen on the Gulf Coast, at $3.045 per gallon, the update highlighted. The highest on-highway diesel price, as of May 8, was also seen in California, at $4.847 per gallon, and the lowest was also seen on the Gulf Coast, at $3.613 per gallon, the update outlined.

Current Prices

As of May 12, the price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.542 per gallon and the price of diesel is $4.034 per gallon, according to the AAA gas prices website.

The highest recorded average price for regular gasoline was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, and the highest recorded average price for diesel was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the site highlighted.

GasBuddy’s live ticking average for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.523 per gallon, as of 4.40am EST on May 12.

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