Dryad Flags Nuclear Bomb Threat for Oil

Ukraine’s use of U.S. long-range missiles to target Russian territory could have profound consequences for Black Sea maritime operations, Dryad Global stated in its latest maritime security threat advisory (MSTA), which was published this week.

“In a scenario involving limited nuclear strikes, tactical weapons could be used to target specific military assets, potentially leading to sea lanes closure and safety zone establishment, resulting in increased insurance rates or ship coverage refusal,” Dryad noted in the MSTA.

“The situation could be significantly escalated by a full-scale nuclear confrontation, although this is unlikely due to the global fallout. Russia may use nuclear saber-rattling as a warning, or opt for cyber and conventional retaliation to significantly impact maritime activities, potentially through cyber-attacks on port infrastructure or intensifying blockades,” it added.

“Any nuclear detonation would raise environmental and health concerns, potentially causing radioactive contamination that would disrupt fishing, tourism, and other maritime activities for years,” it continued.

“Ports may close or operate under strict safety protocols, severely affecting trade, particularly the export of grain from Ukraine and oil from the Caspian Region,” it went on to state.

In the MSTA, Dryad noted that, on November 17, Russia launched the largest missile strike on Ukraine since the conflict began.

“In response, the outgoing Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory, signaling a significant policy shift,” Dryad added.

“This decision comes amid warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin that any attack on Russian soil could result in the use of nuclear weapons, significantly escalating tensions,” it highlighted.

Dryad said in the MSTA that the incoming Trump administration intends to expedite peace talks to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible. It added, however, that this escalation may complicate these plans.

“By allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia, the U.S. may have strengthened Ukraine’s bargaining position, forcing Russia to negotiate from a perceived position of weakness,” Dryad stated in the MSTA.

“However, it raises the risk of nuclear escalation, which could derail peace talks while also having catastrophic consequences for global security,” it added.

“Such a move could be interpreted as the Biden administration’s attempt to create favorable conditions for Ukraine, potentially undermining the incoming administration’s strategy for a swift diplomatic solution,” it continued.

Dryad’s MSTA designates Ukraine with a “critical” risk and impact rating and highlights several incidents in the Black Sea. The only other countries with a “critical” risk and impact rating in the MSTA are Syria and Yemen.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on November 20, Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, highlighted, “just days after the United States allowed Ukraine to target Russian depth with ATACMS missiles, they have already been launched, prompting Russia to amend its nuclear doctrine, which could threaten to take the conflict to an unprecedentedly dangerous stage”.

“The nuclear scenario may be an extreme one that is currently unlikely, in my opinion, as long as there is no significant shift in the balance of power in favor of Ukraine, as Russia can more effectively confront the attacks or intensify its air strikes to neutralize launch vehicles and storage sites, i.e. contain the escalation,” Hasn added.

In a press briefing held on November 19, which was transcribed on the U.S. Defense Department’s website, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said, “we aren’t surprised by Russia’s update to its nuclear doctrine”.

“It’s something that they’ve been signaling that they intend to update over the last several weeks,” Singh added.

“It’s something that we’re going to continue to monitor, but we don’t have any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon within Ukraine. And we don’t see any changes that need to be made to our own nuclear posture as well,” Singh continued.

Singh went on to emphasize that the U.S. is “not at war with Russia”.

Dryad offers risk intelligence planning tools and cyber solutions for maritime, its website highlights. The business is headed by CEO Corey Ranslem, who is describes on the Dryad site as a recognized expert in U.S. Federal Court in maritime security. Dryad notes on its site that it is impartial.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com