Current Renewables Growth to Fall Short of 2030 Target: Report

Current national plans and targets will deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030 set during COP28.

Despite the "unprecedented" acceleration in renewable energy last year, the world will not attain the goal of tripling renewables by 2030, according to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), COP28, COP29, COP30 host Brazil and the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA).

The first official progress report on the UAE Consensus set at COP 28 aims to provide timely and accurate inputs to future COP decisions including COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, according to an IRENA news release.

The report said that annual investment in renewable capacity needs to triple from $570 billion in 2023 to $1.5 trillion every year from 2024 to 2030 in order to keep the goal of 1.5°C attainable.

Installed renewable capacity would have to grow from 3.9 terawatts (TW) today to 11.2 TW by 2030, requiring an additional 7.3 TW in less than six years. Yet, current national plans are projected to leave a global collective gap of 3.8 TW by 2030, falling short of the goal by 34 percent, according to the release.

“These shortfalls highlight the inadequacy of existing policies and plans to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, underscoring the need for urgent policy interventions and massive investment," IRENA said.

“The progress report concludes that to deliver the UAE Consensus goals on the ground, significant advances will be required across the key enablers of the energy transition, namely: infrastructure and system operation, policy and regulation, supply chains, skills and capacities, finance, and international collaboration,” the agency continued.

Exacerbating the challenge is the fact that emerging and developing economies continue to face financing gaps that undermine access to capital-intensive energy transition technologies. Renewable power investments in Africa declined 47 percent between 2022 and 2023, according to the report.

“Reducing this gap involves securing financing at better terms by mitigating country risks and increasing the availability of concessional finance, mostly from multilateral and bilateral development funds and financing institutions and philanthropies," IRENA said.

“The third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement in 2025 must close the gap towards 2030,” the agency further noted.

IRENA Director-General said, “Today, we’re raising the alarm. As the custodian for tracking [the] progress of the UAE Consensus energy goals, we must flag significant gaps. The COP28 goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency are key enablers for our global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach but we risk missing them. The next NDCs must mark a turning point and bring the world back on track”.

COP28 President and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) CEO Sultan Al Jaber said, “The global goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling annual energy efficiency improvement by 2030 set out in the UAE Consensus are not just benchmarks ─ they are essential enablers of all global efforts to achieving 1.5°C and advancing sustainable prosperity for all. The opportunity is there but we need more nations to step up to the plate by including specific renewable energy and infrastructure targets in their upcoming NDCs, incentivizing private investment, and making it easier to develop and deploy projects. We need to think bigger, act bolder ─ and collectively move faster on our energy transition journey”.

COP29 President Designate Mukhtar Babayev said, "This important set of findings by IRENA and GRA includes vital insights on accelerating the global energy transition. Central to our plan to enhance ambition and enable action are a number of Presidency-led initiatives that contribute to global climate action at COP29, and which reflect the outlook and opportunities captured in this report. These include driving the agenda forward through the creation of green energy zones and green energy corridors, strengthening electric grids, increasing energy storage capacity, and [the] development of clean hydrogen. To take tangible steps and turn these recommendations into reality, we are working closely with international partners to ensure that commitments translate into tangible outcomes that benefit all nations, including those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The time for action is now. We call on all stakeholders – governments, businesses and civil society – to intensify their efforts and deliver progress in support of these critical goals".

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