BP Expects 'Exceptional' Oil Trading Results for Q1

BP PLC said Tuesday it expects "exceptional" results for its oil trading activities in the first quarter, compared to "weak" results for the prior three-month period.

The British energy giant said in its trading statement that its January-March 2026 figures had been impacted by "the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter".

These conditions would weigh not only on earnings but also on working capital movements, BP said. The current environment would "increase the dislocation between marker prices versus actual prices realized by BP in 1Q 2026 and increase the impact of price lags", said the statement on BP's website.

"The oil trading result is expected to be exceptional", BP said. BP does not disclose figures specific to its oil trading business, which is under "products" in its "customers and products" segment.

Products results in Q1 are poised to have a positive impact of $100-200 million from stronger realized refining margins, as well as benefit from lower turnaround activity.

In customers, BP expects "seasonally lower volumes and lower retail fuels margins, more than offset by stronger midstream performance".

BP had reported $1.4 billion in replacement-cost (RC) profit, BP's equivalent of profit attributable to shareholders under International Financial Reporting Standards, before interest and taxation for customers and products in Q4 2025. Products contribution for Q4 2025 fell $100 million quarter-on-quarter.

Soaring Brent crude prices and Henry Hub gas prices are expected to result in positive impacts of $340 million and $40 million respectively on BP's pre-tax RC operating profit for Q1 2026. Pre-tax RC operating profit would also benefit from a refining indicator margin impact of $550 million, the statement said.

BP expects its upstream production in Q1 2026 to be "broadly flat" compared to Q4 2025, when it produced 2,344 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day (mboed). "Oil production & operations is expected to be slightly lower compared to the fourth quarter 2025 (1,555 mboed)", BP said.

"Gas & low-carbon energy is expected to be slightly higher compared to the fourth quarter 2025 (788 mboed)", it said.

In the oil production and operations segment, "realizations are expected to have an impact compared to the prior quarter in the range of +$0.1 to 0.2 billion", BP said. "These include the significant impact of the price lags on BP’s production, particularly in the Gulf of America and the UAE where production is priced on one- and two-month lagged basis respectively".

In the gas and low-carbon energy segment, BP expects realizations to be "broadly flat" against Q4 2025. "These include the impact of price lags and the changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices", it said. "The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average".

BP expects the high-price environment to accelerate working capital build and lead to net debt increasing to $25-27 billion at the end of Q1 2026 compared to $22.2 billion at the end of Q4 2025.

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