Are Oil and Gas Vessels in the Red Sea Safe?

Are oil and gas vessels in the Red Sea safe?

The short answer is no, Torbjorn Soltvedt, Verisk Maplecroft’s Principal Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa, told Rigzone, responding to the question.

“The threat of disruption to shipping in the Red Sea will remain elevated as long as the war between Israel and Hamas continues,” Soltvedt said.

“Iran is seeking to avoid a direct military confrontation with Israel but is at the same time seeking to target U.S. and Israeli interests indirectly wherever possible,” he added.

“In practice, Iran is outsourcing its response to its network of armed groups in the region. The result has been an increase in activity from Iran-linked groups in the region, including in Yemen and the Red Sea,” he continued.

Soltvedt noted that that two important factors point toward an increase in Houthi attacks against shipping in the Red Sea over the coming weeks and months.

“First, attacks carried out by the Houthis against commercial shipping carry a lower risk of triggering a direct U.S. or Israeli military response against Iran,” he told Rigzone.

“And second, the halt in Houthi drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia since a diplomatic agreement between Riyadh and Tehran in March gives the group greater scope to focus on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” he added.

“As a result, oil and gas vessels in the Red Sea now face an increased risk of hijackings as well as drone and missile attacks,” Soltvedt continued.

“Ships with commercial ties to Israel and the U.S. face the highest risk of being targeted, but the increase in Houthi activities in the Red Sea also poses a threat to shipping more broadly,” he went on to state.

The Verisk Maplecroft analyst said the Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to seize ships in the Red Sea and added that the group “also has the capability to target ships with an increasingly sophisticated arsenal of anti-ship missiles and drones”.

When he was asked if oil and gas vessels in the Red Sea are safe, Dryad Global Analyst Noah Trowbridge said Israeli linked vessels are at a critical risk of hijacking by the Houthi in the Red Sea, “as illustrated by the seizure of the Galaxy Leader on … November 19”.

“However, it is still unlikely that the Iran-backed group would risk escalation by targeting vessels unaffiliated with Israel at this stage,” Trowbridge added.

The Red Sea, with its connection to the Suez Canal, is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, Dryad notes on its website, adding that it’s an “essential channel, crucial to maintaining many countries’ political and economic stability”. 

“The Red Sea is of huge strategic importance lying between the continents of Asia and Africa, separating the Middle East and the Far East as well as Europe and Asia,” the company states on its site.

“The geopolitical position of the Red Sea is important because it’s a natural border between the eastern coast of Africa and the western coast of the Arabian Peninsula and a vital route for the unarmed transportation of oil through the Bab el-Mandeb in the south to the Suez Canal in the North,” it adds.

“As long as oil remains a primary source of energy for the world, this shipping lane will remain a vital channel for its transport from the Gulf,” it continues.

“Militarily, it’s a vital navigation route between nations and their global bases and as such, has become a theatre for where regional conflict and competition play out,” Dryad goes on to state.

Verisk Maplecroft describes itself as a global risk intelligence company, “providing unparalleled insight into sustainability, resilience and ESG issues, underpinned by best-in-class geospatial data and analytics”. Dryad bridges together maritime domain and cybersecurity awareness with integrated technology solutions to solve operational, cyber, and compliance needs, according to its site.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com