Analysts Stick to Oil Price Forecast

Fitch Solutions Macro Research’s (FSMR) latest Brent crude price forecast remains unchanged from its previous projection, a new report from the company has revealed.

The report outlined that analysts at FSMR expect Brent to average $64 per barrel this year, $62 per barrel in 2020, $58 per barrel in 2021, $59 per barrel in 2022 and $61 per barrel in 2023. The same projections were made in the company’s previous oil price outlook, which was sent to Rigzone in September.

According to the Bloomberg Consensus, which was also outlined in FSMR’s latest oil price report, Brent crude will average $64 per barrel this year, $60.1 per barrel in 2020, $61.9 per barrel in 2021 and $62.5 per barrel in both 2022 and 2023.

“This month we hold to our current forecast for Brent crude … our fundamental views are unchanged,” FSMR analysts stated in the report.

“Across 2019, supply and demand have pulled prices in opposite directions. Supply has contracted y-o-y, dragged lower by the cutbacks made by OPEC and Russia, sanctions in place on Venezuela and Iran and pipeline bottlenecks and spending pullbacks in the U.S. shale patch,” the analysts added.

“Demand, meanwhile, has fallen off a cliff, driven down by weakening global trade and economic activity and a host of more localized headwinds to growth,” the analysts continued.

Last month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) further cut its Brent oil price forecast. The EIA expects Brent spot prices to average $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and $63.37 per barrel for the whole of 2019. In 2020, the EIA forecasts that the commodity will average $59.93 per barrel.

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