Analysts Lower Oil Price Forecast for 2019



Analysts Lower Oil Price Forecast for 2019
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research lower their average annual price forecast for Brent for 2019.

Analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) have lowered their average annual price forecast for Brent for 2019, a new report has revealed.

The analysts now forecast that Brent will average $73 per barrel this year, which marks a $2 decrease from their previous projection of $75.

Looking further ahead, FSMR analysts predict Brent will average $80 per barrel in 2020 – down from their previous forecast of $82 - $84 per barrel in 2021 and $85 per barrel in 2022.

FSMR’s predictions were notably higher than the Bloomberg consensus, which was highlighted in the report. This consensus sees Brent averaging $66.9 per barrel in 2019, $70 per barrel in 2020, $69.6 per barrel in 2021 and $68.6 per barrel in 2022.

“Oil has made substantial gains in the year to date (YTD), rising by around 23 percent,” FSMR analysts stated in the report, which has a publication date of March 1.

“However, almost 10 percent of the total gain occurred over the last two weeks, while sideways trading from mid-January to mid-February has left the YTD average languishing at $62.1 per barrel,” the analysts added.

“We have adjusted down our forecast to reflect the softer start to the year, but our underlying bullish narrative is unchanged, with positive but slower global economic growth and supply management from OPEC,” the analysts continued.

Brent will probably trade somewhere between $74 and $84 per barrel by year end, according to Fat Prophets’ David Lennox, who expressed the view in a television interview with CNBC last month.

Back in January, Wood Mackenzie forecasted that Brent will average $65 per barrel in 2019 and $68 per barrel in 2020.



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