90 Pct Chance of Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Warns

In a statement posted on its website recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned that “atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season”, highlighting that there is now a “90 percent probability of this result”.

“2024 has only a 10 percent chance of a near normal season and a negligible chance of a below normal season,” the statement, which warned that this hurricane season “could rank among the busiest on record”, said.

The statement revealed that forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms in the Atlantic to 17-24. Of these, 8-13 could become hurricanes, including 4-7 major hurricanes, the statement highlighted. It pointed out that this updated outlook is similar to an initial outlook published in May.

In a statement posted on its site back in May, NOAA warned that its National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predicted above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA revealed in that statement that its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicted an 85 percent chance of an above normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near normal season, and a five percent chance of a below normal season. The organization pointed out in that statement that it was forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms. Of those, eight to 13 were forecast to become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes, NOAA highlighted at the time.

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in NOAA’s latest statement.

“NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur,” he added.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, noted in the statement that “hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin”.

“We’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” he added.

“Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now,” he continued.

In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes, NOAA noted in its statement.  

Hurricane Beryl caused catastrophic damage and approximately 20 fatalities in several islands in the Caribbean Sea, with an additional preliminary death toll of about 25 people in Texas, Louisiana, and Vermont, the NOAA statement said.

At Hurricane Beryl’s peak on July 8, 15 production platforms were evacuated and shut-in production reached 151,306 barrels of oil per day and 154 million cubic feet of gas per day, a post on the X page of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) at the time revealed.

Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico in the past. For example, at its peak, Hurricane Ida shut in 95.65 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil production on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of Gulf of Mexico gas production on August 31, 2021, BSEE figures show.

When Rigzone asked the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) if it recorded any oil and gas production platform outages as a result of Hurricane Beryl, an RRC spokesperson told Rigzone at the time that the RRC had not had reports of significant impacts on oil and gas supply from the hurricane.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on July 17, J.P. Morgan analysts noted that, in the U.S., “hurricane Beryl disrupted gasoline and jet fuel demand, with gasoline consumption plunging to 8.8 million barrels per day”.

Earlier this month, the Office of the Texas Governor’s website revealed that Texas Governor Greg Abbott renewed a Hurricane Beryl disaster proclamation. The site highlighted that acting Governor at the time Dan Patrick issued a Hurricane Beryl disaster proclamation back in July.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com