EIA Shows Production Has Outweighed Demand All Year

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on October 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that world petroleum and other liquid fuels production outweighed consumption in the first, second, and third quarters of this year.

According to the STEO, in the third quarter, production averaged 107.43 million barrels per day and consumption averaged 104.83 million barrels per day. In the second quarter, production came in at 105.06 million barrels per day and consumption was 104.05 million barrels per day, and in the first quarter, production averaged 103.62 million barrels per day and consumption was 102.33 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.

The last time consumption came in higher than demand was in the third quarter of 2024, according to the STEO, which showed that, in that quarter, production averaged 103.09 million barrels per day and consumption averaged 103.45 million barrels per day.

In the first quarter of last year, production was 102.60 million barrels per day and consumption was 101.79 million barrels per day, in the second quarter of 2024 production was 103.23 million barrels per day and consumption was 102.93 million barrels per day, and in the fourth quarter of last year production was 103.83 million barrels per day and consumption was 103.46 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

Looking ahead, the STEO projected that production will average 107.31 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. The EIA forecast in the STEO that consumption will come in at 104.72 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

In its latest STEO, the EIA projected that production will average 106.39 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 106.97 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 107.55 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 107.77 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The EIA expects consumption to average 103.64 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 105.11 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 105.95 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 105.70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to its latest STEO.

“The planned increases to OPEC+ production and strong supply growth outside of the group continue to drive global liquid fuels production growth in our forecast,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“Forecast global liquid fuels production increases by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. We expect countries outside of OPEC+ to lead our forecast total liquids production growth,” the EIA added.

“Production from those countries rises by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2025, 0.3 million barrels per day higher than in last month’s STEO, and by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2026,” it continued.

The EIA highlighted in its STEO that “forecast global liquid fuels consumption increases by 1.1 million barrels per day in both forecast years”.

“Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries, which grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, while OECD consumption falls by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2025 before increasing by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2026,” the EIA added in its October STEO.

“Most of non-OECD growth is concentrated in Asia, with liquid fuels consumption in India and China adding more than 0.4 million barrels per day of consumption by 2026 compared with 2024,” the EIA noted.

“Our demand forecast for China only includes final consumption and does not include inventory builds,” it continued.

In its STEO, the EIA highlighted that its world petroleum and other liquid fuel production figures include “crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids”.

“Differences in the reported historical production data across countries could result in some inconsistencies in the delineation between crude oil and other liquid fuels,” the EIA added in the STEO.

In a note relating to its world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption figures, the EIA said in the STEO that “consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is the same as ‘petroleum product supplied’, defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (DOE/EIA-0109)”.

“Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is ‘apparent consumption’, which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering,” the EIA added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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