OPEC Sees Stronger '10 Crude Demand

OPEC Headquarters
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LONDON (Dow Jones), Dec. 15, 2009

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday it has revised up its 2010 world oil demand forecast by a further 70,000 barrels a day on stronger-than-anticipated global economic growth--particularly from countries such as India and China.

The 12-nation producer group said in its monthly oil market report that "2009 was one of the worst years for world oil demand but 2010 should see world oil demand increase by 0.8 million barrels a day following an upward revision of around 70,000 barrels a day from the last assessment."

Non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries will account for all of the increase because of the slow recovery in household consumption within OECD countries, such as the U.S., and the fragile health of the banking sector which still appears to need government support, it said.

OPEC said it sees the world economy growing 2.9% in 2010 following this year's contraction of 1.1% with most of the growth witnessed in developing Asian nations.

"While the OECD is expected to now grow at 1.3% in 2010, the bulk of growth next year will be contributed by non-OECD with China and India expected to grow at 8.5% and 6.5% respectively," it said.

Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 500,000 barrels a day in 2009 to 50.96 million barrels a day following an upward revision of 100,000 barrels a day from November's assessment. The main contributors to the revision are the U.S., Canada, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels a day over the current year to average 51.27 million barrels a day, the bulk of which comes from Brazil, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Colombia, and the U.S.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.6 million barrels a day, following a downward revision of 70,000 barrels a day from the previous assessment to show a decline of 2.3 million barrels a day from last year. In 2010, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 million barrels a day, an upward revision of around 100,000 barrels a day from the previous month and representing a slight increase of 30,000 barrels a day.

According to the report, OPEC's overall production rose slightly by 50,000 barrels a day to 29.08 million barrels a day in November versus 29.03 million barrels a day in October.

Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


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