World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030, driven by robust economic growth and expanding populations in the world's developing countries, according to the reference case projection from the "International Energy Outlook 2008" (IEO2008) released today by the Energy information Administration (EIA).
Average world oil prices in every year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices in real terms. The IEO2008 uses oil price cases originally developed in the summer of 2007 for use in the "Annual Energy Outlook 2008", which focuses on the U.S. energy outlook. These prices do not reflect the substantial runup in prices that has occurred since that time. Nonetheless, although liquid fuels are expected to remain the largest single source of energy through 2030, the liquids share of marketed world energy consumption declines from 37 percent in 2005 to 33 percent in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case.
In addition, the share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply is declines with expanded use of unconventional oil, biofuels, and other unconventional liquids. High oil prices lead many consumers to switch to other fuels when feasible; fuel-switching and efficiency gains, for instance, slow the growth of oil use in the industrial sector. Those trends are even stronger in the IEO2008 high price case, which reflects oil prices that are closer to those being paid in mid-2008, as this report is being issued.
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