China's Inescapable Oil Slide Is a Record-Breaking OPEC Gift
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC’s campaign to prop up oil prices is getting unlikely support from its biggest customer.
China’s production is forecast to fall by as much as 7 percent this year, extending a record decline in 2016, according to analysts at CLSA Ltd., Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Nomura Holdings Inc. That’s about the same size as the output cut agreed by Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which late last year reached a deal to trim supply to support prices.
“China’s domestic crude output decline will certainly help OPEC’s plan to reduce global supply,” said Nelson Wang, a Hong Kong-based oil and gas analyst at CLSA, who sees a 7 percent slide this year. ”Even if that isn’t China’s intention, it’s just the reality that China can’t produce more under the current circumstances.”
While China consumes more oil than almost any other country, it’s also one of the world’s biggest producers, with fields stretching from offshore its southern coast to the far north east. The collapse in prices that began in 2014 is taking its toll, and the nation’s output suffered a record decline last year. That plays into the hands of OPEC as it seeks to prop up the global oil market, forcing China to depend more heavily on imports.
Brent crude, benchmark for half of the world’s oil, averaged about $45 a barrel last year, more than 50 percent below levels in 2014, the year OPEC decided to tackle a global glut by keeping the taps open. The crash in prices triggered a rethink by the group, which banded together with 11 non-member countries late last year and agreed to a collective cut of almost 1.8 million barrels a day.
The deal triggered a rally, which was unable to hold above $58 a barrel amid concern higher prices would spur higher output elsewhere, particularly from U.S. producers. Brent was trading 1.3 percent higher at $56.58 a barrel as of 8:24 a.m. New York time on Tuesday.
China’s output slumped in 2016 as state-owned firms shut wells at mature fields that had become too costly to operate after the crash. Crude production fell 6.9 percent in the first 11 months of 2016 to about 4 million barrels a day, the first decline since 2009 and the biggest in data going back to 1990.The International Energy Agency estimates output fell 335,000 barrels a day last year as the country’s biggest producers cut spending, and will slide a further 240,000 barrels a day this year. Production shrank to a seven-year low in October “with no uptick in activity expected from the major companies,” the Paris-based group said last month.
Daqing, Shengli
Supply from the Daqing field, one of China’s biggest and oldest, slipped about 3 percent last year to 732,200 barrels a day, according to data from China National Petroleum Corp. While the nation’s biggest explorer plans to maintain output at the field, it aims to cut spending on exploration and engineering there by 20 percent this year, it said in December.
Output at China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.’s Shengli field, which contributed 65 percent of the company’s domestic crude production last year, will shrink almost 2 percent, the subsidiary that operates it said this month.
There’s “little hope” the country’s aging oilfields can reverse the declines even as prices rebound, while new discoveries may not raise output as much as expected because of high production costs, said Bernstein’s Neil Beveridge, who forecasts the country will pump 4 percent less this year. Even after explorers improved efficiency over the past two years, the break-even point for new onshore oilfields is still about $50 a barrel, he said.
Supporting Imports
CNPC and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, declined to comment. Nobody answered calls to China National Offshore Oil Corp.’s press office in Beijing.
National Energy Administration, the country’s energy regulator, forecasts that output this year will remain stable at about 4 million barrels a day, NEA director Nur Bekri said at the agency’s annual meeting in December, according to a 21st Century Business Herald report. The NEA didn’t respond to a faxed request for comment.
Lower domestic production will help support the nation’s imports, especially in the first half of the year, according to Virendra Chauhan, an analyst at London-based Energy Aspects Ltd. That will increase the country’s reliance on overseas supply, which is forecast to rise above 65 percent of its total crude use this year, according to CNPC’s research arm.
China’s oil imports in 2016 grew at the fastest pace in six years and the nation was the world’s biggest buyer in December. Inbound shipments climbed 13.6 percent last year, while imports in December rose to record 8.6 million barrels a day. This year, though, the Asian nation will boost its purchases by 4.8 percent, according to the median estimate of eight analysts in a Bloomberg survey last month.
12
View Full Article
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.
- ExxonMobil Racks Up Discoveries in Guyana Block Eyed by Chevron
- Oil Market Sentiment Has Improved Significantly
- EU, US Eye Collaboration on Nuclear Materials
- USA Driving Activity to Increase to All-Time Highs
- EU Electricity Export to Ukraine Up 94 Percent in Two Years
- China Coal Output Falls for First Time since Government Ordered More
- TC Energy to Sell Prince Rupert Gas Pipeline Project to First Nation
- BP Pulse Buys One of Europe's Largest Truck Stops
- UK CCUS Plans Outdated: Think Tank
- I Squared Eyes Full Ownership of Europe Gas Storage Firm
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- EIA Drops 2024 Henry Hub Gas Price Forecast
- EIA and Standard Chartered Offer Up Latest Oil Price Predictions
- Red Sea Region Sees Another Watershed Incident
- Chevron Oil Project in Kazakhstan to Cost $48.5B
- OPEC Voices Encouragement after IEA Affirms Support for Oil Security
- Biden Govt Bares Strategy for Freight Charging, Hydrogen Fueling Infra
- Ukraine Hits Third Russian Refinery In Escalating Drone Strikes
- Rystad Looks at the Buzz Around White Hydrogen
- VIDEO: Missile Attack Kills Crew Transiting Gulf of Aden
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- What Is the Biggest Risk to Offshore Oil and Gas Personnel in 2024?
- Is Peak Oil Demand Close?
- Vessel Sinks in Red Sea After Missile Strike
- JP Morgan, Standard Chartered Reveal Latest Oil Price Forecasts
- Exxon Rights in Stabroek Do Not Apply to Hess Merger with Chevron: Hess
- Rystad Forecasts Net Production of Top Permian Producers in 2024
- Analysts Reveal Latest Oil Price Outlook Following OPEC+ Cut Extension