Libya Oil Production Boost At Risk From Political Splits
Political Turmoil
The broader threat to oil production comes from an unresolved power struggle involving the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and allies of military commander Khalifa Haftar based in the east.
In September, Haftar's forces prised four ports in Libya's Oil Crescent from a PFG commander, Ibrahim Jathran, who had aligned himself with the GNA.
The blockade was lifted, oil production more than doubled to 600,000 bpd, and Haftar's allies confirmed their physical control over most of Libya's oil resources.
Oil revenues, however, have continued to be paid to the central bank in Tripoli, which is under pressure from Western states to release regular funding to the GNA.
If it does so, analysts say Haftar's allies in the east may shut down the Oil Crescent ports once more, rather than seeing substantial income go to rivals in Tripoli.
That could bring the western pipelines under threat as well. Though Zintan is internally divided, the faction that opened the valve is aligned to Haftar's Libyan National Army.
Another worry for the NOC is that eastern power-brokers repeat past, failed attempts to sell oil independently.
With international support, the NOC and the central bank in Tripoli have retained control over oil production and revenues.
But their relationship with the GNA is shaky and breakaway branches of both institutions continue to operate in the east, where officials complain that the country's much reduced oil wealth is not being shared out fairly.
On Saturday, as the deal to reopen the pipeline hung in the balance, the NOC's Sanalla put out a statement complaining that nearly six years after Libya's revolution, the problem of how to manage and distribute the country's oil wealth had never been properly addressed.
If oil continued to be exploited politically, Libya still risked a "tragic end" to its recent period of conflict, he said.
"This issue reveals the size of the gulf separating us from a political solution."
(Editing by Patrick Markey and Susan Thomas)
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