Libyan Commander's Seizure of Oil Ports Risks New Conflict

A commander allied to the LNA said an attempted counter-attack at Ras Lanuf by Jathran loyalists had been blocked on Monday. Jathran had lost much local support after switching allegiances to the GNA; there were few casualties during the port seizures as many of his men appeared to have responded to a call from eastern tribal leaders to hand over control peacefully.

Haftar's forces could face a renewed backlash from Islamist-leaning groups in the east as result of the raids, but they have suffered heavy losses in previous battles with the LNA.

His opponents in the western city of Misrata could prove the bigger threat.

Misratan forces are close to finishing a four-month campaign to oust Islamic State from its former North African stronghold of Sirte.

But the campaign has been costly, and Misrata also has to sustain a military presence in several other parts of the west, including Tripoli, where it has provided support for the GNA.

Eastern Factions

If the LNA retains military control over the terminals, eastern factions it is allied with could make a fresh attempt to export oil independently from the National Oil Company (NOC) in Tripoli.

But previous efforts to do this through the NOC office in Benghazi and funnel money to an eastern branch of Libya's central bank have been blocked by international opposition.

Claudia Gazzini, a Libya expert at International Crisis Group, said it was in Haftar's interests to have a working relationship with the NOC.

"I think this is what he's aiming for - to be the one who reopens the terminals," Gazzini said. "The unexpected outcome is that the terminals could open earlier than expected if there's no military counter attack."

Still, a deal between the LNA and the state oil body could face stiff political opposition from Haftar's opponents in the GNA's leadership, or Presidential Council, which late on Sunday called the attacks an "unjustified escalation" that would prolong conflict in Libya.

The Council consists of nine members who were selected on the basis of Libya's political and geographical divisions and are often divided among themselves.

The return to the Council of Ali Gatrani, a member representing the east who had suspended his membership for months, opens a potential channel to Haftar and his allies in the east as the government seeks to win their backing.

In the past, however, eastern factions have said they will not join the GNA without greater representation, guarantees over the leadership of the military, and the relocation of the NOC to Benghazi - demands they are likely to press with more confidence now.

"The view of the LNA is that, now they are taking control and making advances, they will want to see an improvement in their funding, they will want to see this reflected economically and politically in their benefit," said Mohamed Eljarh, an analyst with the Atlantic Council.

In such a scenario, he said, Misrata leaders could refuse to deal with Haftar, adding: "There we could really see the faultlines for the division of the country."

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London; Editing by Pravin Char)