Russell: Will It matter? That's The Question To Ask Of Any Producers' Deal

Saudi Arabia's oil shipments, as tracked by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodities Research, are likely to be around 33.22 million tonnes in August, equivalent to about 7.82 million barrels per day (bpd).

This figure is still subject to the possibility of more vessels departing, but even if it stays the same, the final number will be similar to what was shipped in July, which was the second-highest monthly total since the beginning of 2015.

Saudi Arabia's average monthly exports since the start of 2015 are around 31.1 million tonnes, and the six months from March to August have all seen totals higher than this average, according to the Thomson Reuters data.

Iran's August shipments have been estimated at 10.477 million tonnes, the highest since Western sanctions against the Islamic republic were lifted in January and about 60 percent higher than the average since the beginning of 2015.

Regional rival Iraq is slated to ship 14.457 million tonnes in August, the most since April and above its average of 13.43 million since January 2015.

The United Arab Emirates is expected to ship 12.43 million tonnes in August, the third-highest since January last year and above the 11.56 million average of the last 20 months.

Thus, the overall picture that emerges from the major Middle East producers is one of plentiful and rising supply, meaning that merely freezing output is unlikely to do much to remove the overhang of crude in the market.

Also, the gains in output ahead of the September meeting are unlikely to sit well with those who have been battling to keep up their production, such as Venezuela and Nigeria, or those who have been largely steady, such as Russia and Angola.

Even if an agreement is reached in Algeria to freeze output, it may be self-defeating as any increase in crude prices will merely encourage producers not party to the deal, such as U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands companies, to boost output.

Unless the OPEC and non-OPEC producers can come up with an agreement that changes the structural dynamics of the oil market, it's hard to see anything more than a fleeting impact, deal or no deal.

(Editing by Tom Hogue)