After Benefits Of Cheap Oil, India Counts Cost Of Reduced Gulf Remittances
"Essentially an improvement in the trade balance is being offset by worsening private transfers," said Pronab Sen, country director for the UK-based International Growth Centre's India programme.
On balance, of course, India has benefited massively from cheap crude over the past two years. It halved the oil import bill, cooled inflation and improved public finances, all of which helped the RBI to cut interest rates.
Economists expect a balance of payments surplus close to $25-30 billion for 2015/16, as foreign direct investment inflows into the world's fastest growing major economy remain robust, and foreign exchange reserves stood at $361 billion on May 13.
All of which makes lower remittances a far smaller headache for India than for its neighbours - Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Meantime, down in Kerala, Joseph has sold his house and cleared his debts. He plans to build a smaller home and start a business with what money he's got left.
($1 = 67.5922 Indian rupees)
(Additional reporting by D Jose in Thiruvananthapuram; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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