IS is unlikely to gain control of Libya’s oil, according to Martijn Murphy, Wood Mackenzie’s research manager for North African upstream oil and gas.
“There’s little prospect of IS gaining control of Libya’s oil,” Murphy told Rigzone.
“The attacks in January this year, at As Sidra and Ra’s Lanuf, demonstrated more I think the strategies about destroying Libya’s export capacity and increasingly depriving the central bank of export revenues, rather than seeking to control the ports and export crude, which I think would be a non-starter. Nor do they have the military capability to gain control of the ports since the Libyan national army, or the remnants of it, and militias allied in the east, have air power which they can call upon,” he added.
Libya’s oil production has been severely impacted since 2014, with Murphy revealing that output in the country has been stuck at around 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day for most of the past two years, which equates to roughly one quarter of Libya’s pre-2011 levels.
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