OPEC will regain ground and exceed its historic record production levels by 2030 as US shale oil growth flattens out in the coming years, BP says.
LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - OPEC will regain ground and exceed its historic record production levels by 2030 as U.S. shale oil growth flattens out in the coming years, energy company BP said on Tuesday.
In the near term, demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is likely to remain under pressure as U.S. shale oil production remains strong, BP said in its annual benchmark Energy Outlook 2035.
Production of tight or shale oil in the United States has been the main driver in supply growth that prompted the near halving of oil prices since July as OPEC opted not to cut its own production.
"The current weakness in the oil market, which stems in large part from strong growth in tight oil production in the U.S., is likely to take several years to work through," BP said.
"But further out, the growth in tight oil is likely to slow and Middle East production will gain ground once more."
After reaching its highest annual production growth of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2014, U.S. shale output is expected to rise by about 3 million bpd between 2013 and 2035, BP said.
While OPEC's response to the reduced demand for its oil remains a key uncertainty, slower U.S. shale output and higher global demand will lead to an increase in demand for OPEC oil, which is expected to exceed its historic 2007 high of 32 million bpd by 2030.
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