Execs: Offshore Oil Drilling Market To Suffer Through 2015
OSLO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - A sluggish offshore drilling market could deteriorate further next year due to weak demand and a flood of new vessels, even though a few places such as Mexico and Brazil remain promising for exploration, industry executives said on Wednesday.
Rig rates have fallen sharply over the past 18 months as oil companies cut capital spending, saving cash for dividends, just as dozens of brand new offshore rigs ordered during the boom times hit the seas, creating overcapacity.
"The market is going to be bad this year, it is going to be worse next year, then it will be stabilising," Rune Magnus Lundetrae, chief financial officer (CFO) of Seadrill, the world's biggest driller by market capitalisation, said on the sidelines of an industry conference.
Day rates for the most advanced ultra-deepwater rigs peaked around $650,000 last year and are now down in a range of $375,000-$500,000, though contracting activity by oil firms has slowed to a trickle, making it hard to establish the actual market rate, executives said.
"It is going to be a very challenging market place for the next 12-18 months," Transocean CFO Esa Ikäheimonen told Reuters. "People will retire some of the older assets and typically deepwater and midwater assets will be going."
"You will probably see day rates lower than what I indicated in the ($375,000-$500,000 per day) range," Ikäheimonen added. "But you might see day rates that are higher ... To me that is the average level where I think the deals will be done."
Orders for new ultra-deepwater rigs equal around 50 percent of the existing fleet and analysts estimate around a third of the new vessels that will come during the next three to four years still have no drilling contracts.
Seadrill's Lundetrae said the market could need another 24 months to bottom out, though for older assets rates were already near the bottom and he expected older vessels to be idled.
Offshore drillers have been among the worst performing shares this year, with Transocean's stock down 25 percent in the past year, underperforming a 7.6 percent rise in the S&P 500 index. Seadrill, whose newer rigs are in greater demand, is down 14 percent, while Ensco is off 18 percent.
Rates for jack up-type rigs, which are used in shallow water and stand on their legs on the sea bed, have also fallen, though not as much as deepwater floaters, with executives predicting rates around $160,000 per day, down from rates around $225,000 at the peak.
"The jack-up market is not showing a drop-off in demand, actually it is showing an increase," Carl Trowell, the chief executive of Ensco said. "It will drive out some older rigs. We are confident about the jack-up market."
While drilling in the North Sea, Africa and the Gulf of Mexico could slow, places such as Mexico and Brazil could pick up some of the slack.
"There are three hot spots right now, and Mexico is one of them," Gustavo Hernandez Garcia, the exploration chief of Pemex said, adding that Brazil and South East Asia were the others.
"We definitely need to increase our capacity," he added. "We need to increase our jack up capacity to about 70 from 60 during the next couple of years to keep the level of activity."
(Writing by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Mark Potter)
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.
- Weatherford CEO's Rebound Plan Relies On Getting Smaller
- Iran Says Oil Market Is Too Tight For US Zero Exports Target
- China's Squeezed 'Teapots' Eye Petchem Path To Riches
- Baker Hughes: US Drillers Add Oil Rigs For Second Week In Three
- Venezuela Hands China More Oil Presence, But No Mention Of New Funds
- Brand Finance Ranks Most Valuable, Strongest Oil and Gas Brands
- Canacol Makes New Gas Discovery in Colombia's Magdalena Basin
- Egypt Plans to Meet Summer Fuel Needs with LNG Imports
- FortisBC Denies Gas Greenwashing as Suit Awaits
- Credit Agricole Helps NGP Secure Funds for Fishery-Solar Projects in Taiwan
- Oil and Gas Executives Predict WTI Oil Price
- Industry Protests Proposed Methane Fee Guidelines for O&G Facilities in US
- Exxon, Cnooc Merge Guyana Arbitration Claims Against Chevron
- New China Climate Chief Says Fossil Fuels Must Keep a Role
- Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude
- House Passes Protecting American Energy Production Act
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production in Denmark's Biggest Gas Field
- Republican Lawmakers Say IEA Has Abandoned Energy Security Mission
- USA Oil and Gas Job Figures Jump
- Blockchain Demands Attention in Oil and Gas
- Macquarie Sees USA Oil Production Exiting 2024 at 14MM Barrels Per Day
- Houthis Warn Saudi Arabia of Retaliation If It Backs USA Attacks
- Summer Pump Prices Set to Hit $4 a Gallon Just as Americans Hit the Road
- New China Climate Chief Says Fossil Fuels Must Keep a Role
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- VIDEO: Missile Attack Kills Crew Transiting Gulf of Aden
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Another Major Oilfield Discovery
- What Is the Biggest Risk to Offshore Oil and Gas Personnel in 2024?
- Vessel Sinks in Red Sea After Missile Strike
- Exxon Rights in Stabroek Do Not Apply to Hess Merger with Chevron: Hess
- Equinor Makes Discovery in North Sea
- Analysts Reveal Latest Oil Price Outlook Following OPEC+ Cut Extension