2014 Hurricane Season: Fewer Storms, But Rig Workers Need to be Wary

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This year's Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be less active, but offshore rig workers could still be at risk.

Hurricanes and tropical storms represent a particular threat to offshore rig workers, so the arrival of the 2014 U.S. Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, means that workers in the Gulf of Mexico will be watching weather forecasts with heightened interest.

While most major weather forecasting entities are predicting a relatively quiet season, forecasting hurricanes is an inexact science, as the 2013 hurricane season demonstrated. Also, at least one particular aspect of this year's forecast could potentially prove troubling to workers in the Gulf at some point.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting between 8 and 13 named storms, with three to six of those becoming hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour (mph) or higher. One or two of the hurricanes are expected to be major, reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 – Category 3 hurricanes have winds of 111 mph or greater.

Using history as a guide, Jeff Johnson, certified consulting meteorologist and chief science officer for Schneider Electric, said in a webinar that there is about a:

  • 30-percent chance that one hurricane will make landfall every year
  • 23-percent chance that two hurricanes will make landfall
  • 19-percent chance that no hurricanes will make landfall
  • 23-percent chance that three or four hurricanes will make landfall

The peak month for hurricane activity is in September, when 104 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S., and September 10 is the peak day for hurricanes to strike. However, 76 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in August, and 51 have come ashore in October, Johnson said.

One of the main factors driving the 2014 forecasts is the expectation that an El Nino will develop in the Pacific Ocean, near the Equator. A full-basin El Nino generally reduces, but does not eliminate, the likelihood of hurricane, while a central El Nino enhances the number of storms, Johnson said. The El Nino that is currently developing in the Pacific is a full-basin El Nino, which is likely to reduce the number of hurricanes in the U.S. for the 2014 season.

Securing a Well and Rigging Down

The one potentially ominous bit of news about the 2014 hurricane season for offshore rig workers in the Gulf of Mexico is that according to European models, warmer-than normal water temperatures and weaker-than-normal wind shear near the U.S. Gulf coast increase the likelihood of close-in hurricane development, according to Johnson. That would mean that everyone could see shorter forecast lead times before the arrival of a hurricane. While short lead times could affect preparations of all those who live in the region, offshore workers are the ones who will be the most affected.

It is particularly important for rig workers offshore to track weather, since storms are unpredictable and can crop up in a short period of time. Energy companies generally have a preferred forecasting company to provide information on a storms development, location and predicted path, according to Rigzone analyst Trevor Crone.

Crone explained the shutting-in process of an offshore well:

“When a storm of any significance approaches and appears to be headed toward a drilling rig, loose equipment, flotation rings and odds and ends are tied up. As the storm nears, the storm packer is set to effectively close in the well.

“If it becomes necessary, non-essential personnel on the rig are sent ashore and generally put up in a hotel, and the remaining personnel may later follow if the storm continues on a path toward the rig. Once the storm passes, the rig workers return to the rig and prepare it for operation again.

“The process of securing a well is expensive, since several days of operation may be lost. However, the safety of personal is of the greatest priority to drilling companies, and given the unpredictability of tropical storms and hurricanes, energy companies will evacuate personnel as soon as it becomes necessary.”

Main Hurricane Threats to Offshore and Coastal Workers

Offshore rig workers who fail to be evacuated face a number of threats from severe tropical storms and hurricanes, and do workers and residents in coastal areas. By far the worst threat to life from a hurricane is a storm surge, according to Johnson, followed by rainfall-induced flooding for those who are onshore but living in coastal areas. Fully 50 percent of all hurricane-related deaths are due to storm surge, and another quarter of deaths are due to rainfall-induced flooding.

“The water is really the big impact as far as loss of life is concerned,” Johnson said.

Other threats to offshore workers and any coastal workers or residents anywhere near the path of the hurricane include the surf, offshore threats, wind and tornados spawned from the hurricane, and unknown other factors, each of which was responsible for 5 percent of hurricane-related deaths.

The peak month for hurricane activity is in September, when 104 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S., and September 10 is the peak day for hurricanes to strike. However, 76 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in August, and 51 have come ashore in October.

The 2013 Hurricane Season in Review

The 2013 hurricane season was above average in activity, with 14 storms, according to Johnson. However, there were only two hurricanes in 2013, compared with an average of six in a normal year. Only one of the two hurricanes made landfall. It was the lowest hurricane total since 1982.

Neither of the two hurricanes in 2013 was a major hurricane with wind gusts of 111 mph or more, Johnson said. The last hurricane season to have only Category 1 storms was 1968. The last time there were no major storms was in 1994.

In 2013, there were some evacuations of non-essential personnel when a low-pressure system threatened to strengthen in mid-August, but production was not interrupted. In early October, however, evacuations were ordered as Tropical Storm Karen moved across the Gulf and headed toward the Louisiana coast. Oil output was cut in half as platforms were shut and workers were evacuated. Overall, however, the year was relatively uneventful for rig workers in the Gulf.

“We had a lot of dry air that came in from Africa early on, and we had a lot of sinking air across the Atlantic, and both of those were unusually persistent patterns that reduced the intensity of the season,” Johnson said.

In 2012, more than 93 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production, totaling 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, and nearly 67 percent of U.S. Gulf natural gas production, totaling about 3 billion cubic feet per day, were shut in as Hurricane Isaac tracked to toward southeastern Louisiana.

The odds are beginning to stack up against continued mild hurricane seasons, with few or no hurricanes moving across the Gulf and making landfall along the Gulf Coast, Johnson cautioned.

“What is unusual is that the last major hurricane to make landfall was in 2005 with hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Dennis and Wilma. Normal is every 500 days, but by the start of the 2014 hurricane season, we will have gone for 3,142 days without a major hurricane. We’re way overdue, statistically.”



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