Uncertainty Hangs Over Future Running Of Abu Dhabi's Big Oilfields

"I think in reality everybody, including ADNOC, is probably in the dark as to what is going to happen," a senior oil industry source in the UAE said.

"One thing is quite clear...none of the oil companies post the end of the concession have any rights because the contract has ended. They are not going to put any money in, so somebody has to take over the entirety and it only makes sense for ADNOC to do it."

ADNOC's director-general, Abdulla Nasser Al Suwaidi, said back in November 2012 that ADNOC would recommend that the Supreme Petroleum Council of Abu Dhabi (SPC) maintain the current partners, because they logically have the most knowledge and experience to manage them effectively.

The oil industry source said the oilfields would continue to run normally under ADNOC, while most of the foreign staff stay on site. But the western oil rivals who have been working together and with ADNOC since the 1970s would no longer offer any technical or commercial advice on getting the most out of the fields in the long term.

None of the companies vying to be part of the next phase of development would comment on the situation. Companies hoping to operate in Abu Dhabi's oil industry have to sign confidentiality agreements forbidding them from even acknowledging the existence of the agreements, one legal expert said.

Short Term

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said on Thursday that the financial impact on the big four oil companies of losing an average of around 150,000 barrels per day of production at a fixed margin of $1.00 per barrel would reduce their earnings by around $50 million per year each.

The loss of their equity stakes under the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO) concession could also shave around 3 percent off the European oil industry's aggregate production in 2014, Deutsche Bank estimated.