Clyde Russell: China Oil Demand Growth to Miss Forecasts


LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Chinese oil demand this year is virtually certain to miss forecasts by the International Energy Agency and the country's top producer.

Implied crude demand fell 5.1 percent to about 9.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from the same month a year earlier, but was 1.5 percent higher than in October and was also the most in five months.

However, the November figures take implied demand for the first 11 months of the year to about 9.76 million bpd, a gain of only 2.1 percent over the same period in 2012.

This is substantially below the IEA's forecast for total demand of 10.19 million bpd in 2013 contained in the agency's monthly report published Dec. 11.

It is also below the 10.28 million bpd forecast in January by top state oil company China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

Implied demand is calculated by adding net fuel imports to refinery throughput, but excludes changes in commercial and strategic inventories.

Inventories changes in volume terms aren't disclosed by the authorities, although percentage changes for commercial stockpiles are reported monthly.


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