Statoil: Global Oil Demand Will Hit 100 MMbopd by 2040
by Jon Mainwaring
|Friday, June 14, 2013
Statoil expects global demand for oil to grow to by 15 million barrels per day to around 100 million bopd by 2040, although this demand is expected to peak around 2030, according to the Norwegian major's latest "Energy Perspectives" report.
As with last year's report, Statoil continues to see gas as "a fuel of the future" with global gas demand expected to increase at an average of 1.6 percent through to 2040. Statoil noted that the supply potential of shale gas "continues to surprise" both in terms of volumes and marginal costs, while environmental policies are expected to help improve the competitiveness of gas – which is the cleanest fossil fuel in terms of carbon emissions.
Oil demand is forecast to grow at 0.5 percent per year, which is a slightly greater rate than last year's forecast, with income growth and an increase in private transport in emerging economies being the two most important drivers of oil demand.
Statoil noted that the technology-driven shale revolution and continuous improvements in oil sands technology mean that several new types of oil liquids – like tight oil and natural gas liquids from shale gas and oil sands – have become economical.
"Together with rising bio-fuels and gas-to-liquids production, these 'new' types of oil liquids will play an important role in replacing most of the declining conventional non-OPEC crude production over the next decades," Statoil Chief Economist Eirik Wærness said in a company statement.
Oil demand is expected to peak around 2030, with growth limited mainly by a relatively high price and fuel competition, technological change and efficiency improvements in the transportation sector.
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