IEA Sees Oil Glut Persisting Despite Soaring Demand
LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - World oil demand is expanding at its fastest pace in five years thanks to rebounding economic growth and low prices, but global oversupply will last through 2016, the West's energy watchdog said on Wednesday.
The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that it was steeply raising its demand growth outlook for this year and 2016, and expected non-OPEC supply growth to decline next year, with U.S. producers hardest hit.
"While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 - suggesting global inventories will pile up further," the Paris-based IEA said.
The view from the IEA chimes with that of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday lowered U.S. production forecasts, signalling that a 60 percent rout in benchmark prices since last summer may finally be weighing on shale output.
Oil prices have fallen to below $50 per barrel, pressured by an abundance of supply and a strong dollar. The views from the IEA are more bullish than those of OPEC, which on Tuesday raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries.
The IEA said it saw global oil demand rising by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, up 260,000 bpd from its forecast last month, citing solid economic growth and consumers responding to lower prices.
"That's the biggest growth spurt in five years and a dramatic uptick on a demand increase of just 0.7 million bpd in 2014," it said.
It added that persistent macroeconomic strength will support above-trend growth at 1.4 million bpd in 2016, up 410,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
The decline in crude prices has prompted oil companies to cut their investment plans.
"While a drop in costs and efficiency improvements will help to offset some of the spending cuts, output is likely to take a hit soon," the IEA said.
US Hardest Hit
The IEA said it saw non-OPEC supply growth slowing sharply from a 2014 record of 2.4 million bpd to 1.1 million bpd this year and then contracting by 200,000 in 2016 - with the United States hardest hit.
The prediction signals that OPEC's strategy of not cutting output, and hurting rival producers instead with lower prices, might be finally working.
However, the strategy, introduced in November last year, has created such global oversupply that it will take another year and a half to absorb the glut.
"Our latest balances show that while the overhang will ease from a staggering 3.0 million bpd in the second quarter of 2015, its highest since 1998, the projected oversupply persists through the first half of 2016," the IEA said.
12
View Full Article
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Generated by readers, the comments included herein do not reflect the views and opinions of Rigzone. All comments are subject to editorial review. Off-topic, inappropriate or insulting comments will be removed.
- Weatherford CEO's Rebound Plan Relies On Getting Smaller
- Iran Says Oil Market Is Too Tight For US Zero Exports Target
- China's Squeezed 'Teapots' Eye Petchem Path To Riches
- Baker Hughes: US Drillers Add Oil Rigs For Second Week In Three
- Venezuela Hands China More Oil Presence, But No Mention Of New Funds
- Oil and Gas Executives Predict WTI Oil Price
- Brand Finance Ranks Most Valuable, Strongest Oil and Gas Brands
- Canacol Makes New Gas Discovery in Colombia's Magdalena Basin
- FortisBC Denies Gas Greenwashing as Suit Awaits
- Centcom Outlines Latest Red Sea Moves
- Egypt Plans to Meet Summer Fuel Needs with LNG Imports
- Credit Agricole Helps NGP Secure Funds for Fishery-Solar Projects in Taiwan
- Industry Protests Proposed Methane Fee Guidelines for O&G Facilities in US
- Exxon, Cnooc Merge Guyana Arbitration Claims Against Chevron
- Ruptured Oil Pipeline Causes South Sudan's Revenues to Nosedive
- New China Climate Chief Says Fossil Fuels Must Keep a Role
- Oil and Gas Executives Predict WTI Oil Price
- House Passes Protecting American Energy Production Act
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production in Denmark's Biggest Gas Field
- Blockchain Demands Attention in Oil and Gas
- Republican Lawmakers Say IEA Has Abandoned Energy Security Mission
- USA Oil and Gas Job Figures Jump
- Macquarie Sees USA Oil Production Exiting 2024 at 14MM Barrels Per Day
- Houthis Warn Saudi Arabia of Retaliation If It Backs USA Attacks
- Brand Finance Ranks Most Valuable, Strongest Oil and Gas Brands
- New China Climate Chief Says Fossil Fuels Must Keep a Role
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Major Oilfield Discovery
- VIDEO: Missile Attack Kills Crew Transiting Gulf of Aden
- Norway Regulator Blasts Proposal to Halt New Oil and Gas Permits
- Chinese Mega Company Makes Another Major Oilfield Discovery
- What Is the Biggest Risk to Offshore Oil and Gas Personnel in 2024?
- Vessel Sinks in Red Sea After Missile Strike
- Exxon Rights in Stabroek Do Not Apply to Hess Merger with Chevron: Hess
- Equinor Makes Discovery in North Sea
- Analysts Reveal Latest Oil Price Outlook Following OPEC+ Cut Extension