Shale Oil Production Could Hit 14 MMbopd by 2035

Shale Oil Production Could Hit 14 MMbopd by 2035

Global shale oil production has the potential to reach up to 14 million barrels per day by 2035, or 12 percent of the world's total oil supply, according to a new report from accountants PwC released Thursday.

PwC's report "Shale oil: the next energy revolution" stated that the firm estimates the increase could reduce oil prices in 2035 to between 25 percent and 40 percent (or between $83 and $100 per barrel in real terms) relative to the current baseline EIA projection of $133 per barrel in 2035.

The firm said that the potential emergence of shale oil presents "major strategic opportunities and challenges for the oil and gas industry and for governments worldwide", adding that "it could also influence the dynamics of geopolitics as it increases energy independence for many countries and reduces the influence of OPEC".

Meanwhile there will be "significant strategic implications" along the energy supply chain. "Oil producers, for example, will have carefully to assess their current portfolios and planned projects against lower oil price scenarios," stated the report.

"National and international oil producers will also need to review their business models and skills in light of the very different demands of producing shale oil onshore rather than developing complex 'frontier' projects on which most operations and new investment is currently focused."



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Gary Schwendiman, Ph.D. | Feb. 15, 2013
Mike is exactly on target. My analysis for decline of production is even more severe than Mikes. I show in my research a deline of 75% in the first year of production. Further, my analysis shows that the total amount world wide that will be extracted in shale oil is 96 billion barrels. The extraction in the U. S,. will be a total of 24 billion barrels. The hype and projections by people who are selling shares and stock in the companies involved in shale oil have been way, way beyond reality. Investors are starting to realize it. The only way to keep production high is to keep drilling new wells. When one drills no more wells, the production will slide faster than a kid riding a sled down a steep hill on ice.

Mike | Feb. 14, 2013
There are 9,000 tight oil wells in the US at the moment producing a little over 1.3 M BOPD. We have been at this uncoventional shale resource play for 6 years; 1/2 of our domestic rig fleet has been thrown at it and over 100 billion dollars, most of it borrowed. Wells decline at the rate of 73% the first 3 years of production. There is no stinking way we will ever get to 14 M BOPD from tight oil resources. Never. It would take 500,000 shale wells all making 28 BOPD to get close to 14 M a day and the truth is, if no more tight oil wells were drilled in American beginning tomorrow, the 9,000 we already have would be stripper wells in less than 5 years.


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